It's the Ground Game, Stupid! (& Obama's winning!)

James Carville is famous for his line "It's the economy, stupid" when running Bill Clinton's campaign for president.  Other pundits have proclaimed that if the country doesn't see a candidate as a potential commander-in-chief than the country will not be receptive to a candidate's various positions.  That candidate doesn't appear to be credible.  In this election (like many others) both are true.

However, the conventional wisdom is that elections are won on the ground.  If the message is there but the ground game stinks, than the voters will not be voting even if they agree with the candidate for they won't make it to the polls.

Well according to many recent articles the Obama campaign is really focusing on the ground game.  And more importantly, the Obama campaign is winning that war as we speak.

There are 2 reasons to vote for a particular candidate either A. one is ENTHUSIASTIC for that candidate or B. one is VOTING AGAINST the other candidate.  "ENTHUSIASM" typically beats "VOTING AGAINST" for it more likely will get people to the polls.

Democrats this year have the enthusiasm which is one of the reasons why pundits are declaring 2008 "the year for the Democrats".

Besides giving a voter reason to vote for a candidate, the way to winning an elections is the GROUND GAME which is to harnish voter enthusiasm.  Ground game consists of just being there, voter registration, education of voters including door-to-door, getting people to the polls, etc.

At this point, the Obama campaign not only has the voter enthusiasm but it has got the superior ground game.

Let's see what's happening on the ground at various swing states.

MICHIGAN:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/...

A Michigan source has given Marc Ambinder some info on what the Obama ground game will be like in Michigan.  So far the campaign has hired more than 90 paid staffers and plan to hire 80 additional ones by the Democratic convention.

There will be five full-time "constituency voter coordinators" who work with coalitions and affinity groups, like women, gays and veterans. All in all, the campaign plans to pay more than 200 people in Michigan. That's about twice as many staffers as the Kerry-Edwards effort did in 2004.

The Obama campaign will open 40 offices statewide which will be coordinated with local parties and campaigns.  In all there will be 2,000 precincts with individual captains who will oversee voter ID, voter education, voter registration, and GOTV.

The McCain campaign plan to target Michigan as well even pouring more sources into that state than Pennsylvania but they really haven't gotten started in any big way yet.

INDIANA:

http://www.indystar.com/...

The Obama campaign is already there running ads and opening up offices while the McCain campaign hasn't really gotten started. In addition the Obama campaign is pushing unity with Hillary supporters. It may be because Indiana hasn't really been a swing state for decades why the McCain camp isn't there.  However, this year may be different for Indiana borders Illinois which is Obama's home state and Obama did quite well in this state during the primary, campaigning heavily here.

The election is four months away, but for now the score in Indiana is Barack Obama, 6; John McCain, 0.

Zero campaign offices, that is.
Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, has opened five campaign offices -- in Evansville, Fishers, Fort Wayne, Muncie and South Bend -- and will open a sixth in Bloomington on Monday.

Jonathan Swain, a spokesman for Obama's campaign in Indiana, said plans are to have 25 to 30 campaign offices in the state.

FLORIDA:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/...

Democratic voter registration outpacing Republican by 7:1.  In a state in which the election was determined by <500 votes in 2000, this is quite a development.  </p>

John McCain's Florida problems may be growing: Democratic voters have out-registered Republicans by a nearly 7-to-1 margin since January.

State totals show Democrats gained a net of 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the GOP -- a shift that could muddle any McCain campaign math that banks on a Florida win to gain the White House.

New Democratic registration outnumbered Republicans in six Central Florida counties -- even heavily Republican Seminole County.

"It's a clear sign that Democrats are re-surging in Florida," said political scientist Aubrey Jewett with the University of Central Florida. "I think the numbers certainly should worry the McCain campaign."

IOWA:

Iowa is probably near and dear to Obama's heart and will always be there.  He spent a year campaigning there and the Iowans really got to know him.  Well Obama is continuing to show Iowa "love" by building a big ground game organization there.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is off to a more aggressive campaign in Iowa than John McCain, despite the Republican having clinched the nomination three months earlier than his rival.

Obama has 15 campaign offices open and staffed in Iowa, while McCain is still plotting where to locate about half as many.

Though Obama campaign officials declined to disclose their hiring plans, they said its safe to say their 2-to-1 edge in local headquarters is a sign Obama's staff will outnumber McCain's team, which could reach 20 by this fall.

All in all, while the MSM is focused on BOGUS national polls ie Newsweek and tracking national polls like Rasmussen and Gallup, the Obama campaign is busy working on the ground game in the states which is what REALLY counts in the end.  This fact may be reflective in various state by state polls that we have seen recently which shows that Obama is doing well in various swing states.

Again, one shouldn't focus so much on national polls for this election will be won in individual states and so far the Obama campaign is off and running....