Upcoming pentagon report: Iraq Withdrawal <16 months!

As we all know Obama has been taken heat by the MSM and the McCain campaign for saying that he would "refine" his Iaq policy after visiting Iraq.  However, Obama is sticking with his plan of withdrawing 1 to 2 brigades per month to try to get all combat forces out of Iraq in 16 months taking into account what is happening on the ground as well as the Iraqi government themselves who want a timetable for withdrawal.

Well according to Newsweek in the next month there will be a forthcoming Pentagon-sponsored report that will recommend and even STEEPER DRAW DOWN IN LESS TIME.

http://www.newsweek.com/...

I smell a real debate going to be happening in the Fall on the Iraq War and Obama will be the victor.

This upcoming Pentagon report is a 300 page report done by the defense analysis group at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Ca.

Expected to be completed in about a month, it will recommend that U.S. forces be reduced to as few as 50,000 by the spring of 2009, down from about 150,000 now. The strategy is based on a major handoff to the increasingly successful Iraqi Army, with platoon-size U.S. detachments backing the Iraqis from small outposts, with air support. The large U.S. forward operating bases that house the bulk of U.S. troops would be mostly abandoned, and the role of Special Forces would increase.

What's interesting about this report is that its conclusion has been discussed by Secretary of Defense Gates's Defense Policy Board which is an outside board of experts.  It has also found favor with the Iraq Study Group particularly with former White House chief of staff Leon Panetta.

Part of the plan of this report

also calls for a regional diplomatic effort complementing negotiations with the Iraqi tribes, which echoes the previous recommendations of such analysts as John Arquilla, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Even with a small leavening of American troops the Iraqis perform quite well," he says.

The biggest obstacle to this plan is none other than General David Petraeus who is oppose to this plan.  However, IMO General Petraeus touts the Bush administration's views so what he says now doesn't mean that is what he will say in January '09 with a new president.  

There are 2 issues here that may affect Patraeus' thinking:  what the Bush administration wants him to say vs the knowledge that Afghanistan is spiraling down and there may be NO CHOICE but to draw down in Iraq any way (thus the Sunday NYT article).

I am absolutely sure that Senators Reed, Hagel, and Obama know about this 300 page report and of course they know that the Iraqi government wants a timetable.  Thus what Obama says after his meeting with Patraeus and the Iraq government will be extremely important and will set the tone of his stance on Iraq for the rest of his campaign. After last week the Obama campaign all know that every word he says after his Iraq trip will be parsed.  So it is imperative that he gets the language right and is very clear on his intentions.  Nuance won't work for it can be spun and twisted.

I would suggest that Obama stick to his plan of 16 months withdrawal and battle it out with McCain in the Fall about this for he will have cover from not only this 300 page report but from the Iraqi government themselves who want a timetable.  Thus Obama's 16 month withdrawal plan can be inacted.